Global crises and water PDF Print E-mail
Thursday, 27 August 2009 07:02
water_boatWhat the United Nations’ third World Water Development Report revealed

While climate change will create important pressures on water, it is not currently the most important driver of these pressures outside the water sector. The most important drivers – forces and processes generated by human activities – are demographics and the increasing consumption that comes with rising per capita incomes. 

In the early stages of development, population growth is the most important driver. The majority of projected growth in demand comes not from high-population growth countries, but from countries with high rates of economic growth and large current populations.
As incomes permit, people consume more. To start with, the need for water and food will increase for tens of millions of people moving from one meal to two meals a day.

Later, still more water will be needed for food production as people include more meat in their diets. Changes in lifestyles will require large amounts of water to produce and process non-food goods and services (virtual water), further increasing pressures on the quantity and quality of water resources.

Other demographic drivers include rural-urban migration, and migration in response to political conflict and environmental crises.

Other external forces that may create either positive or negative pressures on water resources include pricing policies and subsidies for water and water-related goods; trade patterns; developments in science and technology; consumption patterns; evolution of policies and laws; social movements; and global and national politics.

Except for climate change, these forces will not create pressures directly (or only) on water management. The pressures will be felt first at the level of sector ministers, whose responses will translate into strategies that affect the water sector. These ministers will have to make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

The better informed they are, the more likely they are to make the right decisions.

For water managers, this means being able to provide reliable information about where and when water is available, of what quality, where and how it is used, what happens to wastewater, how much water leaves the country in exports of goods that use water in their production (virtual water), and how much enters the country in imports.

This will be a challenge for water managers in most countries that lack the necessary measurements and do not systematically collect the necessary data. But when the information is available, it will be possible to calculate the country’s water balance and the water footprints (volume of water used) of various users.

Using this information, water managers can advise decision-makers in other sectors of the feasibility of their plans and the implications for water.

Water for energy

Demand for energy – for heat, light, power and transportation – is increasing rapidly.

The price of energy commodities has been rising as well. Volatile, the nominal price of oil – the benchmark commodity – rose from less than $25 a barrel eight years ago to about $100 early in 2008 and more than $140 in June 2008.

Within two months, it fell below levels projected for the longer term by the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy and was at $35 a barrel on 19 December 2008 (Figure 1.8 below).

Energy prices, particularly the oil prices that drive them, earlier reflected rising world demand and constraints.

The recent financial crisis, which has slowed economic growth throughout the world, reducing anticipated demand, was largely responsible for the low price of oil at the end of 2008.

The combination of high prices and a desire to substitute other sources of fuel led to the recent increase in the production of bioenergy, which has potentially important impacts on water quality and availability.

Hydropower may be a renewable and non-polluting source of energy in some countries. Water for cooling is needed for all thermal sources of power, including nuclear.

In the US, water withdrawn for cooling (39%) equals agriculture’s share of water use. At the same time, energy is required to lift groundwater, pump it through pipes and treat both groundwater and wastewater.

An estimated 7% of all energy produced is used for such purposes. Increased demand for water through desalination may increase energy demand in some countries, although marginally on a global scale.

Water for food

Agriculture is by far the largest consumer of freshwater – about 70% of all freshwater withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture.

The recent steep rise in food prices (Figure 1.9 opposite) has severely hurt many food-importing countries.

Rising demand for food caused by growing populations and shifting diets; production shortfall in some countries; increased costs for key agricultural inputs such as fertilisers (driven in turn by energy costs); bioenergy-related incentives in some countries; and possible financial speculation have all contributed to the problem.

The High-Level Conference on World Food Security: The Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy, a Food and Agriculture Organization summit in Rome on 3 June 2008, adopted a declaration acknowledging “an urgent need to help developing countries and countries in transition expand agriculture and food production, and to increase investment in agriculture, agribusiness and rural development, from both public and private sources”.

It calls on donors to provide balance of payments and budget support to low-income food-importing countries.

Water scarcity may limit food production and supply, putting pressure on food prices and increasing countries’ dependence on food imports. The number of countries and regions without enough water to produce their food is rising as populations increase.

The situation can be remedied in many developing countries by investing in water infrastructure, markets, credit, agricultural technology and extension services.

Underinvestment in water

The energy and food crises are taking place during a time of global financial crisis.

A credit crunch has followed the financial crises that began in the US and Europe in 2007 and spread around the globe. The credit crunch has resulted in a slowdown in economic growth around the world.

The International Monetary Fund forecasted in January 2009 that all industrial countries would face a period of recession and that some developing countries are more at risk than others.

According to the Commission on Growth and Development, “developing countries are most vulnerable to sudden stoppages of credit and sudden switches of international custom or supply.

Developing countries most at risk include those exporting directly to crisis-affected countries, those whose exports are experiencing falling world prices, and those whose exports have high income elasticity (luxury goods, including tourism).

Declining tourism revenues and employment will directly affect poor communities.

Countries dependent on foreign direct investment, remittances and development funds to finance the current account deficit will also be at risk.

Oil-importing countries have already been hard hit by the period of high oil prices.

The high rates of global savings and strong productivity growth in the three decades before the financial crisis – when the stock of financial assets grew three times faster than gross domestic product – were not accompanied by investments in physical assets, and their levels are below those in the last decade.

While other factors may have contributed to these lower levels of investment, economic uncertainty is a
major factor.

Uncertainty about the policy environment in developing and emerging market, and while other factors may also have contributed to these lower levels of investment, economic uncertainty is another major factor.

There was also concern for the uncertainty of the policy environment in developing and emerging market economies, but its influence has strengthened in the currently highly competitive global markets.

The impact on developing countries will vary. Budgetary spending on infrastructure is often cut during periods of financial tightening, although for governments that can afford it, investing in infrastructure can help counter an economic slowdown.

Private investment may also suffer, but since the private sector’s contribution to the water sector has been relatively small, the sector is less exposed to any financial tightening.

Countries dependent on aid face uncertain times. Bilateral donors, important in funding water investments, may be tempted to reduce their aid budgets.

Multilateral aid could be an important source of financing for the next few years, particularly following recent record multi-year replenishments of the International Development Association, African Development Fund and European Development Fund.

Yet, both bilateral and multilateral aid donors still appear not to recognise the contribution of the water sector to growth, as indicated by the sector’s small share of total official development assistance in recent years (less than 4%).

Inadequate information on water and water crises

Managing water is made more difficult by the lack of knowledge and information required for decision-making and long-term planning.

Few countries know how much water is being used and for what purposes, the quantity and quality of water that is available and that can be withdrawn without serious environmental consequences, and how much is being invested in water management and infrastructure.

Underfunding of observation, monitoring and information systems leads to weaknesses

Less is known with each passing decade, despite the availability of new remote sensing and geographic information system technologies that can simplify monitoring and reporting; and despite the growing need for such information in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world.

Such information is vital not only at a national scale but also at a global scale – to inform the construction of global models of the hydrologic cycle and decisions on where interventions, including external aid, would be most useful.

One move in that direction is the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, which requires signatories to exchange data on water quality and quantity, pollution sources and the environmental conditions of transboundary waters.

Climate change and water

Some parts of the world have no shortage of water. Others, such as North and southern Africa, the Middle East and parts of South Asia, South-East Asia and South America, suffer scarcity because of low annual rainfall.

Others suffer seasonal scarcity, and others from extreme rainfall, causing floods.

Some suffer from both low and extreme rainfall, at different times.

In some large countries, such as Mozambique and the US, parts of the country may experience damaging intensive rainfalls while other parts suffer prolonged drought. These variations matter most where they affect large populations.

Scarcity – low available water per capita – is forecast to worsen where population growth is still high, as in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and some countries in South America and the Middle East.

Adapting to climate change adds a critical challenge to this picture for all countries, particularly for developing countries, whose capacity to adapt is low, and for cities in coastal areas.

Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilise in the coming years, some impacts from climate change are unavoidable. These include growing water stress, more extreme weather events, higher levels of migration, and the disruption of international markets.

Climate models show that extremes of rainfall are likely to worsen, resulting in more floods and droughts in regions already affected – often regions with low income levels per capita, widespread absolute poverty, high population growth and rapid urbanisation.

If climate change brings significant shifts in the availability of water resources, patterns of human migration could be affected.

These challenges cannot be separated from the challenges of sustainable development.

For some developing countries, the incremental costs of adapting to climate change will soon approach the current value of aid inflows.

The leaders of the G8, meeting in Hokkaido, Japan in July 2008, committed to accelerating action on technology development, transfer, financing and capacity building to support adaptation. Such action must include water resources that will be most affected by climate change.

A recent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change document on adaptation noted that sector-specific adaptation planning and practices were discussed in the areas of agriculture and food security, water resources, coastal zones and health. These sectors were selected based on their importance to parties and organisations as highlighted in their submissions.

The world is correct to be concerned about climate change, which poses a major threat to humans and ecosystems.

The 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia acknowledged that even the minimum predicted shifts in climate for the 21st century, at more than twice the 0.6° Celsius increase that has occurred since 1900, would be significant and disruptive.

The intergovernmental response has focused primarily on mitigation of climate change, embracing wide-ranging measures, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transferring clean technologies and protecting forests.

These measures may slow climate change. They will not halt or reverse it.

It will be two generations before these measures begin to have an effect. And even if successful, they imply a considerably changed future climate. (They are not aimed at reversing changes already under way).

In the meantime, people must be protected from the consequences of global climate change through adaptation measures.

Adaptation, as embodied in the Nairobi Work Programme of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is based on gaining a better understanding of the impacts of climate change and making informed decisions on practical measures.

The water situation and the vulnerability of poor communities present a strong case for action on climate change. Projections warn of changes in water availability and quality that could have disastrous consequences.

Water is the principal medium through which climate change will affect economic, social and environmental conditions.

Changes in water availability will have economy-wide impacts. Yet, while the world appears motivated to respond to the impacts of future climate change, it remains unmotivated to act on the water crises that are with us today.

Even without climate change, development is threatened in many regions by factors that we have already failed to address time and again. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s April 2008 report on water clearly points this out.

Security and water

Climate change, particularly its implications for scarce water resources, is a matter of collective security in a fragile and increasingly interdependent world.

At a 2007 UN Security Council debate on the impact of climate change on peace and security, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon noted that climate change has implications for peace and security, as well as serious environmental, social and economic implications, particularly “in vulnerable regions that face multiple stresses at the same time – pre-existing conflict, poverty and unequal access to resources, weak institutions, food insecurity and incidence of diseases such as HIV/Aids”.

He outlined “alarming, though not alarmist” scenarios, including limited or threatened access to energy increasing the risk of conflict, a scarcity of food and water transforming peaceful competition into violence, and floods and droughts sparking massive human migrations, polarising societies and weakening the ability of countries to resolve conflicts peacefully.

In Africa alone, by 2020, 75-250 million people may be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.

If coupled with increased demand, this will hurt livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

Research centres such as the Oxford Research Group are underpinning the security concerns of the United Nations, the European Union and national governments about climate change and its impacts on water.

The forces at work are global in scale, the aggregate result of the behaviour of all countries. Dealing with them will require international co-operation and co-ordination. Yet, at the same time, national leaders must continue to act and make decisions at a national level.

As climate change and adverse water impacts increase in politically charged areas, conflicts will likely intensify, requiring new and rapid adaptive security strategies.

Hydrologic shocks that may occur through climate change increase the risk of major national and international security threats, particularly in unstable areas. Adverse changes in internal, interjurisdictional and transboundary waters can put food, social, health, economic, political and military security at risk.

Some fragile states have experienced widespread conflict that has resulted in the destruction of economic infrastructure.

The vulnerability of affected populations is worsened by the state’s loss of control over the forces of law and order, and ultimately by its loss of political legitimacy.

Installing infrastructure and renewing institutional capacity following conflict have the potential to set post-conflict nations on a path to recovery.

For example, rehabilitation of damaged irrigation infrastructure and expansion of water supply and sanitation formed a significant part of the 2006 Somali Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Plan.

Similarly, rehabilitation of infrastructure after major natural disasters provides an opportunity to address long-standing infrastructure deficits.

The need for action – now

Water has remained too low on the list of political priorities for too long, a situation that cannot be allowed to continue. Action is required now.

Lives and livelihoods depend on water for development. Changes in human behaviour and activity are accelerating, affecting demand for water and its supply.

Because investments have been neglected, development is lagging, people are suffering, and the environment is deteriorating.

The resources needed to address the problems of water management are minuscule compared with the financial resources that have been pledged and secured to deal with carbon emissions or the current financial crisis.

After decades of inaction, the problems are enormous. And they will worsen if left unattended.

Although substantial, the challenges are not insurmountable. The decisions on development objectives and the allocation of human and financial resources needed to meet them are made or influenced by leaders in government, the private sector and civil society. They are the ones who must recognise the role of water in attaining their objectives – and demonstrate the will to act now.

From the United Nations World Water Development Report, third edition, 2009.
 

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